Portfolio Update: 25 Year Trading Experiment | July 2026

Month 18. The active portfolio has pulled decisively ahead. After months of trading close to the passive benchmark, the gap has widened to 11.1 percentage points. The active side sits at +36.5% from inception, the passive at +25.4%. Total portfolio value is now 222,626 kr ($22,944). What makes this month interesting is that the active portfolio achieved this with 44.8% of the portfolio in cash. There is significant dry powder waiting for the right setups.

Several positions were closed this month. $PYPL was exited after 476 days at -20%. $JD was closed at -15% after 305 days. $NOVO-B was exited at break-even after 206 days. And $BABA was closed at -7%. On the other side, new positions were opened in $LULU and $BABA (re-entry). The portfolio has been restructured.

All trades are always shared live on X.com/tradergu, and the public trading dashboard is updated with the latest trade details and up-to-date portfolio allocations.

Performance: Inception to Date

The total portfolio value is now worth $22,944 (222,626 kr). The active portfolio has extended its lead significantly from last month’s 1.7 percentage points to 11.1.

Actively Traded Portfolio: +36.5%
Passively Invested Portfolio: +25.4%
Outperformance: +11.1pp

25 year trading experiment - Performance, Inception to Date Performance: Inception to Date

The goal is to outperform the global index over a 25 year period through disciplined active Swing Trading.

Performance: Year to Date

2026 has been strong for both portfolios. The active portfolio leads on a year-to-date basis at +24.2%, significantly ahead of the passive portfolio’s +20.0%. After trailing the passive side for the first few months of 2026, the active portfolio has now overtaken it on a YTD basis as well.

Actively Traded Portfolio: +24.2%
Passively Invested Portfolio: +20.0%
Outperformance 2026: +4.1pp

The active portfolio outperformed the passive by 7.7pp in 2025 and is now ahead by 4.1pp in 2026.

25 year trading experiment - Performance, Year to Date Performance: Year to Date

Performance: Month to Month Overview

Month 17 delivered +11.8% for the active portfolio while the passive side was essentially flat at -0.4%. This is a 12.2 percentage point spread in a single month. The active side has now posted positive monthly returns in 4 of the last 5 months, recovering from the drawdown earlier in the year.

25 year trading experiment - Month by Month, Active Performance: Month by Month, Actively Traded Portfolio

25 year trading experiment - Month by Month, Passive Performance: Month by Month, Passively Invested Portfolio

25 year trading experiment - Month by Month Performance: Month by Month, Chart

Open Positions

The portfolio has been restructured this month. Several long-held positions were closed and new ones opened. Current holdings: $LULU (19.5%), $NVO (16.5%), $BABA (10.9%), $BRKR (5.1%), and $NOVO-B (3.3%). Cash sits at 44.8%, the highest it has been in months. This is intentional. I am waiting for high-conviction setups rather than forcing trades.

Position allocation Open Positions

Risk is distributed across five positions. $NVO carries the highest individual risk at approximately 5.8% of the portfolio.

Risk per Trade

Open Positions: Detailed Overview

The following table contains the entry, stop loss, position size, and current market prices.

Trade details Open Trades: Details

Realized P&L & Win Rate

Since inception, 24 trades have been realized: 9 winners, 7 losses, and 5 break-even trades.

Win rate: 56% excluding break-even trades, 45% including them.

The biggest winner remains TGT at +58% (120 days). The biggest loss was PYPL at -20% (476 days). That PYPL position was held far too long. Lesson learned.

25 year trading experiment - Realized P&L Realized P&L

25 Year Trading Experiment

For a full overview of the experiment’s purpose and structure, check out my 25 Year overview page, or watch the previously released YouTube introduction.

In short:

10,000 SEK (~$1,000) invested monthly - split 50/50
Actively Traded vs Passively Invested Global Index Fund
Contributions on the 22nd of every month
Tracking my performance from 2025 to 2050
Transparency: Every trade shared publicly

Summary

This is the month the active portfolio pulled ahead convincingly. After 18 months of trading close to the passive benchmark, the gap is now 11.1 percentage points. The restructuring this month, closing underperformers and reallocating to higher-conviction positions, is already showing results.

The 44.8% cash position might look conservative, but that is by design. The best swing traders wait. They don’t force trades to be fully invested. When the right setups appear, the capital is ready.

The portfolio is now 546 days old. That is about 6% of the 25-year journey. Long way to go, but the foundation is solid.

How are your portfolios performing this summer?

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